2012-09-26
2012-10-04
x ohio

STATION
MSNBCW 35
MSNBC 34
CNN 15
CNNW 14
FOXNEWS 13
CSPAN 5
CSPAN2 3
KNTV (NBC) 3
KPIX (CBS) 3
KQED (PBS) 2
KRCB (PBS) 2
WBAL (NBC) 2
WRC 2
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English 155

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republican senator john mccain, and then the risk of being the frontrunner with obama's senior advisor david axelrod. plus, polls, ads, and early voting. with republican strategist alex castellanos, and cinderella and congressional correspondent dana bash. i'm candy crowley. this is "state of the union." >>> it would not be debate season if the political world and the campaigns didn't play the expectations game. >> the president is obviously a very eloquent, gifted speaker. he will do just fine. >> the president's campaign manager jim mecina called romney a very skilled debater and in an open memo to interested parties, senior advisor david axelroad just as he was in the primaries, we expect mitt romney to be a prepared, disciplined, and aggressive debater. joining me now is someone who knows a thing or two about expectations and debates, republican senator john mccain. a little trip down memory lane there. >> i think both candidates are well prepared, and understandably, you'll see their sur gats lowering expectations. i don't know how our guy will compete, and that's part of the whole rout

points. these are not implausible assumptions. mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points. could have to up to 36 points. that is if it does not change. d, ands does get realize if the white college graduates face about the same, it means that met romney would have to get north of 40 point margin of the white voter. let's take a look of where we are now. this is the gold standard. breaks. this shows that obama is leading by 8 points. if you look at the averages, it is a bit high. the averages are running about four points. you are probably up by five points. this is within the averages. it is similar to the pole from the heartland monitor which will talk about later. overall top line, a look at the margin, 91 points. that is basically identical. 7222 among 852 margin. most have been showing this. what this means is that the idea that obama could get 80% of the minority vote is quite logical based on these and other data that looks like what he will get. this shows you the break out for college graduates. , obama is doing a little bit better among white graduat

of the candidates have experienced. president obama's last debate was against senator john mccain in the fall of 2008. while governor romney has had nearly two dozen debates during that gop primary. the obama campaign says the president's strategy is focused on shorter, crisper answers. the romney strategy, as reported in "the new york times" has the governor memorizing a series of zingers to try to hit the president with. let's bring in our "news nation" political panel for this monday. democratic strategist chris, national radio host michael, and also an msnbc contributor, and villa skype as you can tell from our shot there, steve, conservative radio show host. you have the visual disadvantage because you're skype. i'll let you start off first here. let me play what paul ryan, completely opposite of what chris christie said this sunday. his assessment of the debates. let's play ryan, please. >> i don't think one event is going to make or break this campaign. look, president obama's a very -- he's a very gifted speaker. this is mitt's first time on this kind of a stage. >> it's no secret, st

, which was this date four years ago, the focus was the war. in fact, both wars. >> do you, senator mccain, much has been said about the lessons of vietnam. what do you see as the lessons of iraq? >> i think the lessons of iraq are very clear that you cannot have a failed strategy. thanks to this great general david pa tray yous, they are succeeding and winning in iraq. >>the lde into the war in the first place. six years ago i stood up and opposed this war. we hadn't finished the job in afghanistan. we hadn't caught bin laden. we hadn't put al qaeda to rest. an asecetht that it was going to be a distraction. now, senator mccain and president bush had a very different judgment. >> so that was this date, 40 days out from the election in '08 and 40 days out from the election in '04. in '04 the campaign was consumed with the debate overt ast one of our wars. 40 days out from the election in '08, in the midst of the financial meltdown the campaign was consumed with both of the wars. now it's 2012 and we're 40 days out from the election this year and we are not quite as consumed with that issue

that are saying farewell. see what he says about george w. bush and john mccain. this is "the daily rundown." i am chuck todd. let's get to the first reads of the morning. in the last two weeks, we polled in nine battleground states deciding the election. ohio, florida, virginia, colorado, iowa, wisconsin, north carolina, nevada, new hampshire. bad news for mitt romney, he doesn't lead in a single one. at best within the poll's margin of error. at worst, trails by eight points. this morning, how the nine states stack up. we said it again and again. the president's job approval rating may be the best indicator of where the bout may be. where it is more than 50, the president favored to win. iowa, florida, new hampshire, ohio, virginia, his approval rating below that, 47 or 48 in four. colorado, nevada, north carolina, wisconsin. here is a second way to breakdown the numbers. romney struggled with favorability number all year. that number underwater, more voters have unfavorable than favorable view in six states. romney is in positive territory in just three. florida, north carolina, virginia. final

president had was against john mccain. and he's had no debates in between and it just makes a difference. i can tell you from my own experience. >> back in 2008, the president had plenty of debate practice. sometimes, it showed. >> straight talk express lost a wheel on that one. >> sometimes, it didn't. >> he's very likable. i, i agree with that. i don't think i'm that bad. >> you're likable enough. >> thanks. >> that was a smackdown so unlike his nice guy image, the obama team still considers it one of the standout errors of 2008. tonight, his team says, the president will push mitt romney on specifics. >> he come to this debate with a heavy burden to finally put out those details of where he wants to take this country. >> a message his sparring opponent echoes. >> and about substance? >> sure. want to know. i want to know what's going on. >> policy. >> people are interested in the situation there in america, the challenges we face. sure. >> candy, today happens to be an important day for president obama for another reason. it is the obama's 20th wedding anniversary. no doubt they are havi

, in fact, at best a few points better than wind mccain ran in 2008 and he is doing no better at all among white college graduates. that is one reason why the state is at this point looking pretty favorable toward barack obama. he could carry it by as much as he did in 2008. and also, if you look at it geographically obama is doing very well in the columbus area, which is kind of the slim support where it counts. o.c. investors and a lot of other states. the grace to the pennsylvania which, again, if their romney team could have put pennsylvania in place it would have been the key to a lot of other things. but the problem for them now is that pennsylvania is looking very difficult for them. obama is barely running in eight or nine or ten. average margin. it's just not happening. again, it comes back to what appeared to be the big coke, that they could drive up the white working-class margins in that state. 2008, a 15-point of vantage for john mccain, but the polls coming out of pennsylvania again and again show is not doing any better than-15. so basically the state is looking very similar

and turn the majpage. congressman paul ryan and paul mccain. take a look at this approach. >> the response was slow. it was confused. it was inconsistent. they first said that it was a youtube video and a spontaneous mob. we now know that it was a planned terrorist attack. if this was one tragic incident, that would be a tragedy in and of itself. the problem is it's part of a bigger picture of the fact that the obama foreign policy is unraveling literally before our eyes on our tv screens. >> i think it interferes with the depiction that the administration is trying to convey, that al qaeda is on the wane, that everything's fine in the middle east. >> you think it's political? >> i think there are certain political overtones. how else could you trot out our u.n. ambassador to say it was spontaneous? >> maybe it was. >> five days later? that doesn't pass the smell test. it was ever ignorance or willful intelligence. >> whether you agree with him or not, senator mccain has the credibility, a war hero, with great experience in washington dealing with foreign policy, how do you think, though,

know. this shifts from one campaign season to the next. president obama wiped out senator john mccain in early voting in 2008. many political analysts think that gap is going to be much tighter this time around. >> republicans are enthused, more so than in 2008. there will be motivation among the republicans to vote. we have a romney campaign that is investing in early voting were more so than the john mccain campaign in 2008. >>reporter: they say it is about the enthusiasm gap which the republicans have an edge. >>shepard: is the romney camp doing things different in the way the james holmes campaign did? >>guest: yes, the john mccain had less money. romney campaign has a more targeted approach spending as were time as possible in states where early voting has or is about to start. >> for republicans specifically, that message needs to be crystal clear. that is why governor romney is so specific as he is campaigning. you realize that votes are being cast. >>reporter: before the first debate is held. these are voters that already have made up their mind. >>shepard: there are a lot of

in the field, that romney has a good ground game in ohio. knocking on 28 times as many doors as john mccain did. that's a pretty stunning ratio. why isn't he doing better? >> the mccain campaign wasn't renowned for its ground game. romney has about half as many offices in ohio as the obama campaign, which has been embedded in the state, yet according to "the washington post poll, the romney campaign is doing a good job keeping up. these volunteers and field staffers for the campaign don't really know what product they're selling because mitt romney hasn't really articulated. a compelling message as to why they should throw out barack obama because the economy in ohio is doing better than it is in other parts of the country. >> it is and the question is, who gets the credit ryan joins me now along with roland martin. roland, that was the kind of, you're not afraid to say what you think. a kick in the you know, at least they're saying they feel the way they feel. >> actually, honesty is always the best policy. it's amazing they are making sarah palin out to look like a you know, profit, if you wi

during mccain one on ones. while romney did well in this season's gop debates, had rough performances, bet you $10,000 he did. romney performances, the unspoken body language that the camera captured, they were brutal against ted kennedy. ivy league will enjoy biden versus ryan more. trust me. >>> turning back to the brand new battleground polls. there's a different pattern emerging, president obama is ahead in new hampshire, tighter in nevada and north carolina. joining me, director of the marist poll. good to see you in person. >> welcome to the home of the new york yankees. >> you're going to blow the playoff run. >> i am worried. >> we want the beltway series in washington. we have been looking at this as sort of the generic, the general all nine states. what is your take away? >> i think what you're seeing is a very big difference when obama is 45, 46 as months ago when everything was 44, now he gets to 48, 49, 50, you can say it makes a difference -- >> it does feel like 48 is a big difference -- >> seeing a change in the right direction in the approval rating. >> massive gender

thing about president obama and the debates with john mccain, it really wasn't so much what he said. it was the way he held himself compared with the way that senator john mccain held himself, and senator mccain looked increasingly flustered. he looked frustrated with candidate obama. i think that the great thing about president obama is that he does have the capacity to be totally in the moment and to be totally funny. he is funny on his feet. and so, you know, for him to practice what he's going to do in case of a zinger, i think he's got the blessing of being rather spontaneous and the blessing of being up against someone who is incapable of spontaneity, reveals himself into" those spontaneous moments like the 47% taped remark to be not a terribly likable person. so i think for the president to practice the way he handles zingers defeats what the president is particularly good at. >> well, actually barack means -- barack means in swahili blessed one, so you got that one right. will president obama challenge romney on the details of his vague tax plan, a tax plan almost every expe

audience of the campaign. the first 2008 presidential debate between the president and john mccain got seven times the audience of the highest rated 2012 republican primary debate. think about that. seven times. past debates show romney and obama have to worry about cut away shots that are less than flattering. in the past both candidates have come across as irritable, patronizing or disengaged. this was chris christie's advice to the candidates yesterday. >> what you do is go out and be yourself. and people either like it or don't. if they don't, they are going to vote for somebody else. not a tragedy. no one dies. >> finally speaking of debates, there was a barn burner last night in massachusetts where scott brown and democratic challenger elizabeth warren faced off in a debate. moderated by nbc's david gregory. it was tense from the outset. >> if you're going to comment on my record, i would at least have you refer to it -- excuse me. i'm not a student in your classroom. please let me respond, okay? >> that was an echo of a quip brown used in 2010 when he told martha kwaurkly i'm no

us an indication of the underlying currents in the race. barack obama lost the senior vote to john mccain in florida by eight points in 2008. so for the president to be doing well in that traditional republican voting block is a danger sign for romney. strategists for both parties in florida agree obama is ahead in the state and the battle over medicare is helping make inroads with seniors. as nancy reported, the president is also doing better with blue collar white voters in ohio and doing better on the economy of the economy. whose happening is mitt romney is having to play defense with his own voting group. the time he has to spend shoring them up is time he's not spending getting swing voters. >> pelley: john, polls that are taken about this point in september sometimes predict the winner and sometimes they don't. in 2008, we had obama over mccain at about this point, but in the year 2000, we had gore over bush about this point. how predictive are these polls six weeks out. >> reporter: if we go all the way back to 1952, eisenhower's first election, the vast majority of the time the c

be off. i was on the mccain campaign so i've seen him in primary debates with mccain, in primary debates in 2008 and now in 2012. ki tell you, there's times he's on, like when he was in florida in the last two primary debates. there's times he's been totally off, like the last two debates in south carolina where newt gingrich had him on the ropes. >> but he has to do something to turn around the dime nick this race. >> what's interesting is, yes, you have sort of the official romney/ryan line that mitt romney can't form a complete sentence and bark obama is cicero and it's going to be very hard. but what christie said is what you're hearing from people behind the scenes. there was a piece with a lot of anonymous quotes from romney aides saying, we need a game changer. i think the good news for romney is if you look back to those primary debates that you were talking about, he did the best in the debates where it seemed like he absolutely had to win. so the south carolina debate, seemed like he was on cruise control, sort of playing a prevent defense against newt gingrich. but then once g

mccain four years ago? >> it sounds like a huge, huge mistake on his part. the only poll that matters, of course, is on election day and i worked on campaigns before. you can't not look at polls. gretchen, for mitt romney to say that he's not going to directly go after the president when we see his record so dower and pathetic and knowing the media isn't covering any of this. his huge gaffe was not admitting we were attacked by al-qaeda and where was the media on this? the ohm person that can take the president to task is mitt romney. the pressure it on for denver. i'll be there for "the five," but he really has to bring it because the media won't do that. >> gretchen: ten seconds. >> i think the big x factor is extremely passionate voters on the republican side. i think romney has a slight edge there and a little bit on the foreign affairs side that andrea is talking about. if you look among senior, look on the economy, all those key issues right now are trending towards president obama in the voters' minds and people getting comfortable with the idea of a second term. >> gretchen: 4

. you contrasted that with the mccain campaign which didn't have as much enthusiasm and didn't have as much of a strategy involving early voting. in fact, it wasn't until the week prior to the election that mccain and palin started even mentioning early voting within their stump speeches. romney's mentioned it already. so romney's doing much better than mccain did in 2008 and he has ample resources and he has enthusiasm on his side, too. so 2012 is not going to look like 2008. in fact, most elections that we see, more republicans tend to vote early. now, there's some variations among the states. so that's not universally true. but if we look nationally usually it's more republicans that vote early than democrats. >> ifill: demographically as we saw judy talking to young voters in ohio, are they more likely to be the people who take advantage of it or are the faces different? >> young peop in colleges, often that's the only choice that they have to vote is by an absentee ballots because they're not-- they're far from home and so they need that opportunity to vote an absentee ballot a

by saying look the president hasn't debated since john mccain four years ago while mitt romney had a couple dozen debates in those republic primaries earlier this year. the other thing going on you said the debate is a week from tonight. two days later we will get the september jobs report. so the economy going to remain front and center, shep. >> shepard: ed henry live, kent, ohio tonight. thanks. the romney camp also arguing that president obama himself has not called the recent assault on the u.s. consulate in benghazi, libya an act of terrorism. that attack killed four americans including the u.s. ambassador to libya. and now house republicans are turning up the pressure on the president to clear up the facts on what happened there. plus, andy williams has died. but he left behind decades of memorable television specials and hit songs. tonight, remembering that easy-going all-american singer. ♪ a shadow of your smile when you are gone. ♪ keys, keys, keys, keys, keys. ♪ well, he's not very handsome ♪ to look at [ sighs ] ♪ oh, he's shaggy ♪ and he eats like a hog [ male annou

columnist meghan mccain and son of the former president reagan. meghan, politico columnist wrote a satire call piece about romney and ryan and spoke to my colleague jansing. >> paul ryan is treated like a surrogate. he doesn't get to choose his own staff. he has a staff loyal to mitt romney around him every minute. he is told what to say and told what to do. that's fine as long as romney is winning. but romney is not winning. he's losing. and that unleashes the presidential candidate to act in his or her own way to unleash sarah palin to start attacking barack obama more. >> so meghan, as we all know. your dad certainly dealt with tensions within the ticket of himself, sarah palin, for any of these candidates, though, behind the scenes there is ego, ambition, and the perception of what the voters see. do you think there is a behind the scenes strain that's going on because, as we also mentioned, the fact that congressman ryan is still running for his same seat. he has a good safety net if things don't go well as role for vice president. >> first of all that gentleman from politico wrote a

had senator john mccain about what you need to present to people during debate. we know yesterday you talked about this, which mitt romney will show up tonight? ab is talking about keeping the conservative base fired up or perhaps trying to go after the other people he would need to win here. let me play what bob said on "morning joe." >> i remember in the 1990s once asking john mccain is it possible and he asked -- actually asked the question is it possible to run for president and be true to yourself? he ran for president. a lot of people would say he wasn't true to himself. i asked him a couple of months ago, what's the answer to that question? and he said, i don't know. >> what do you make of that, eugene? even senator john mccain. we saw this. the guy was supposed to be the maverick. he was consumed by the sarah palin hurricane or whatever you choose to describe that event as being what we witnessed. but he did not know or does not know. >> well, this is quite a process isn't it, tamron? >> mm-hmm. >> the environment is such that every -- every step you take, every move you make,

and john mccain faced off in a first debate that was nearly canceled when the republican suspended his campaign because of the meltdown on wall street. the day of their second debate, the stock market dropped 500 points. >> now the troubles are spreading. the market took another dive today, and there are some big names now involved. >> reporter: the day of the third debate, the stock market dropped over 300 points. >> fear that the country could be entering in one of the most serious recessions in decades, led by wall street's 700-point sell-off. >> now four years later, the president who faced john mccain in those debates and beat him faces his new republican challenger for the first time. >> i'm looking forward to head to head. >> an mirror image of '08, a campaign is chaotic mash. new issues, new controversies, every day. the polls are bad for romney and good for obama in the swing states. but the national numbers are as tight as they get. the primaries are over, the conventions are over, but the debates, the home stretch, starts right now. >>> all right. the pre-season is officiall

>> gretchen: tomorrow, bob massi will be here, senator john mccain and new jersey housewife caroline manzo. rocco is telling us, this used to be 700 calories. >> now 136. >> brian: and counting. >> talk about a government reduction. if we could run the government like this. >> steve: from pasta to politic politics. militias. at the same time there are new questions where this investigation is going if anywhere. remember it has been nearly two weeks since the deadly september 11 attack on a u.s. consulate in benghazi. that is where we begin. i'm bill hemmer. good morning to "america's newsroom.". martha: good morning, everybody. i'm martha maccallum. there are still really a lot of unanswered questions. it is still unclear what the libyan government is doing to bring those killers to justice. president obama yesterday telling the u.n. assembly that america will get to the bottom of the murders of chris stevens and the others. >> the attack on civilians in benghazi were attacks on america. there should be no doubt we will be relentless tracking down the killers and bringing th

, mccain, graham and eye quote. they want more answers as to why the u.s. ambassador to the u.n., susan rice, made the statements that she did given what the intelligence was at that time. so i think what we're seeing now is some real momentum at least on the republican side to force the administration to explain why they said certain things publicly about this spontaneous attack when the intelligence said something quite different, megyn. megyn: catherine herridge, thank you. >> reporter: you're welcome. megyn: well, as we mentioned moments ago, new polling suggests that president obama is way ahead in two critical swing states. but team romney and some polling number crunchers say not so fast. what is really going on here? in three minutes we'll go over the numbers and talk to them with michael reagan. we won't talk to the numbers, we'll talk to michael reagan about them. >>> and a rising star in the gop is getting hit with some angry hate mail. we introduced you to congressional candidate mia love at the rnc in tampa, and now we'll tell you why she is being targeted. >>> plus, cafete

. that admission led to many questions what took the administration so long with john mccain and lindsay graham issuing this statement. we recognize that al-qaeda involvement in the terrorist

years ago, john mccain stood up to a supporter who called then-senator obama an arab. here's his instantaneous, instinctive reaction. take a look. >> i have read about him and he's not -- he's a -- he's an arab. he's not -- >> no, ma'am. >> no? >> no, ma'am, no, ma'am. he's a decent, family man, citizen that i just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. that's what this campaign is all about. >> yeah, that's called honor. it's called honor. we're not seeing a lot of that. we're not seeing any of that. >> i haven't seen that on either side in this campaign. >> john mccain is a genuine guy. disagree with him, agree with him, whatever, it's called honor. the republican party used to believe in that. >> put it more crudely, there's some crap i won't eat. i'm not going to go along with what i see as is an ethnic campaign, that shouldn't be part of this campaign. i'm not going to go along with what you said. that instinctive no, no, is the greatest american spirit. i'm not going to do that. >> imagine mitt romney doing that. >> i would like to see every politician do

up by 5 points over john mccain. 50%, 45%. a case could be made that mitt romney is doing better than john mccain did. but that might be misleading. the presidential race is going to come down to just a handful of states ohio and florida being the most important governor romney plus win in both places that's why today's polling news is causing controversy. talking points has said from the very beginning that the debates this year will be the deciding factor one week from tonight in denver, colorado, the president will meet the governor at :00 p.m. eastern time. no question and all the polls show this that most americans are not happy with president obama's leadership, especially on the economy. many of the folks don't trust mitt romney. however, if the governor can do what ronald reagan did in 1980, that is keep the incumbent president on the defense during the debates, then the polls will surely change. that's not an easy thing to do because the debate formats allow the candidates to say pretty much whatever they want to sacht the moderator next week jim lair is not going to control

florida, the majority of seniors voted for john mccain because they were hesitant how the health care reform would take place. talking about ryan and medicare and seniors, it comes down to florida. >> florida, florida, florida, david. she is right about one thing. if you look at the poll, the one area where you see consistent movement poll after poll after poll toward barack obama has been with senior citizens. you know as well as i do, they are a consistent voting block. they go to the polls in larger percentages. has the obama administration been successful at branding the medicare plan of the republicans as voucher care and are senior citizens moving away because they're afraid of the medicare changes? >> the ryan budget plan existed in terms of the 2010 election when republicans won 65 plus seniors by 21 points. part of the dynamic that exists here is, in fact, seniors are really unhappy with president obama's health care plan. what you see is this significant concern handling medicare, four years ago republicans would lose that by 25 points. now it's down in low single digits whe

. back in 2008, the obama campaign thought they had a shot at arizona if senator john mccain hat oe of ticket. there is also a open senate seat in the state of arizona that is now in play. outgoing republican senator jon kyl's seat could be turning from red to blue. the republican candidate for senate is congressman jeff flake. he leads democrat challeng richard caona by only one point in a carmona campaign internal poll. now, congressman flake is a typical republican in speaker boehner's failing house of representatives. he wants to repeal obama care, the affordable ce ac he's aia n'gh e-sex marriage, he's choose, and the icing on the cake, he voted for paul ryan's, what some people call, immoral budget that completely guts medicaid and dismantles the social safety net in america. his opponent, former george w. bushurgeon general, richard ons ng oit approach. >> it's reprehensible to think that the contract that we have with our seniors through medicare or soci security is going to be cut. that doesn't make any sense. these are not entitlements. these e, in fact, instments. so i th

beat john mccain by just one point. 49 to 48. but among white men in 2008, he lost by 16 points to john mccain. among white males so far in 2012 romney leads -- you heard some of the leads among other groups but among white males romney over obama 60% to 34%. a 26-point lead among white males. i don't get it. i guess the question is what's wrong with white males. other question is can white males alone save mitt romney? i don't think so. i would love your take on this. help us figure it out. 1-800-steph-12. look what is it about white men? is it they're afraid of losing their job? they're afraid of losing their homes? they're afraid of not getting ahead in the world? they're afraid they won't be able to take care of their families. they're afraid of a black man? what is it? is it racism? is it that they just can't stand the fact that there is a black man in the oval office and you know, they're a white guy and this is a white country and our forefathers were white and what's going on here? we're losing

compared with 26 terz for mitt romney. romney here is doing worse than john mccain did back in 2008 who got 31%. the latino vote. also worse than george w. bush in 2004 who got 44% of the latino. anna, to you. is there anything at this point that romney can do to get the latino support up? >> well, suzanne, i think praying on novina might help. look, he -- we had a tough primary on the republican side. i think mitt romney has been an unknown commodity to his hispani hispanics. he doesn't come from a border state like john mccain or george w. bush did. he has not done a great intense voter outreach with the latinos because he ran out of money after the primary. he -- let me just be absolutely truthful and give smu straight talk as john mccain would say. mitt romney dug himself into a hole with latinos during the primary. he said some things that are coming back to haunt him. he now needs to find a way to dig himself out of that hole. i think the only way he will do it is if he really continues the intense activity outreach with latinos, speaks to latinos a directly as he can and as often as

? gosh, i remember when obama was running against mccain, and it seemed like every day i heard about the muslim and the birth thing, it was terrible. they didn't think that that was biased. it was the story of the day. host: beverly, you're in missouri. are you seeing a lot of campaign commercials on the air? caller: well, in mccassill and aiken. host: but not on the presidential level? caller: no, very few. i think obama has written off missouri, because even though these women here and two men, they are all -- i haven't found one democrat. host: beside yourself, huh? caller: that sort of tells me how their mind is. they're not going vote for obama, but they're not going to vote for romney. i asked, this one lady i ride with, she said she's not going to vote for the president this time. i didn't ask her why, because i want to remain friends, but she definitely wanted to vote republican, but she just can't bring herself to vote for romney because of what they'll do to social security, and she said mine's safe, but i have children and grandchildren. that's the way they're thinking. ho

that john mccain could not win the presidency. a great american but allows a republican and a terrible senator. and i was sadly correct. not only was he a terrible candid in the middle of the crisis, probably even the best gadgets could not have survived. a financial crisis with an incumbent president that was been wrongly at the seat of george bush in the republican party when it goes back to democratic house important -- but nevertheless i wrote in that book that romney would make a great presidential nominee. i didn't know who the nominee would be. it's not a book about romney. i was proven remarkably impressionable by the 2007 book. the dean of the columbia school of journalism. the new yorkers national political reporter and always the go to guy for national political stories. the profile the in 2005 for the new yorker. it was a very nice piece. he told his liberal democratic leaders, the most influential conservative you ever heard of. okay. [laughter] that's okay, i guess. i don't really speak to the manhattan crowd, the your crowd. how many of you describe to the new yorker? i

like the mccain campaign. more focused on tactics than the overall -- let's just say rovian-type strategy. karl rove had a strategy in 2000 and 2004 before he started, and he stuck with it the entire campaign. i don't see that focus here with romney's top advisers. >> there hasn't been that focus. and i think what's really blindsided the campaign, they're obviously worried about the polls that you just discussed. what's really, really worries them is that the right track number coming out of the convention, the number of people who feel like the country's headed in a better direction, that that number really shot up after the democratic conventions and that they're picking that up in swing states, in a lot of these senate races. and that suggests a mood shift in the electorate that they don't fully understand. they think it has something to do with the convention. maybe a little bit to do with the economy in some of these swing states that the economy's still not good, but there are at least signs of the housing front that it might be getting a little bit better. and now the

peksations a-- expect way too high. >> romney is polling worse in favorability right now than john mccain was four years ago at this point. what's that mean now if anything? >> i've been thinking about this. i talked to a friend who is in the other party, i can't say who it is -- >> they got to be worried. >> he said, look, romney's problem isn't that people don't like him. romney's problem is that people think he doesn't like them. that's what the 47% is all about. that's what all of the -- that's what the medicare stuff is all about. >> what about that comment that operative from pennsylvania said about the bain ads. it seems to me nat obama team really coined this guy early. president obama said he looks like the guy who fired you. and then they went on the bain run. and then there was this war on women, which is taken into effect. i mean, every step of the way romney has been on the defensive. >> you and have i talked about this before. he lost the summer, he lost the conventions, he lost the month of september and he can't afford to lose the debates. the obama people were very smart,

of the mccain campaign back in 2008 in those days at the end when you felt like the campaign was grasping at every new ornament that it found on the tree. it's being distracted. one week it seems to be libya. the next day it's medicare. the next day it's whether the president has said something about a bump in the road. and i think the voters, it's very confusing to have these very short-term responses in the romney campaign. of course every campaign has to have a rapid response. but usually that should augment what is the overall strategy. it shouldn't become the strategy. and at the moment it seems like they are trying to win each news cycle rather than win the election. >> they have been chasing news cycles. and in virginia, he talked about defense cuts. that's what direct mail is for. that's not for your candidate to do that. that's what surprised me a little bit, is that romney went -- and i think what the critique is getting at, it's not that it's just small ball by the campaign. tactically you should do some of these things in certain states. but the candidate himself amplifying it

out and vote. >> right. and even bigger gap than 69/31 what president obama beat john mccain among latinos in 2008. look, this is a problem in this election for republicans, andrea, but a bigger problem in 2016, 2020 and beyond. the hispanic community is obviously a young community, it's a growing community, it's a community that's going to register to vote more in line with their population numbers in years to come. republicans simply cannot lose the hispanic vote by 40, 50 points. they can't even lose it by 20 points. people like jeb bush, marco rubio who you showed earlier they understand that. i think the party needs to have a reckoning with where they are in immigration and courting hispanics. numbers like that, mitt romney maybe can win with a number like that, possibly nationally, but i will tell you in 2016, 2020 and beyond the party nominee will be hard pressed to win losing hispanic business that kind of margin. >> and finally, how big a deal is joe biden saying that the middle class has been buried for the last four years? >> yeah. >> republicans are going to make a big

this is a bipartisan thing. mccain in 2008 to me is the classic example. it seems to be true of obama. i wonder though is there a potential then, because we have seen that romney can carry out attacks pretty well in debates, is there a phones that romney gets under obama's skin in a way that unnerves him, off his game and forces him into some kind of unflattering moment? do you see some kind of potential there? >> i -- people who know better than i tell me the president has developed a real dislike, at a distance, from mitt romney, just like the others you mentioned in the past, because mitt romney shows politicians in some respects the worst and most manipulatives a spoesks themself these don't want to see. i think president obama has to keep his cool. kent come off as condescending. he has got to let mitt romney, in boxing terms, let mitt romney attack and then the president has to be ready at the key moment with a droll and devastating counter punch, if he's got one. got to maintain his cool the whole way along. i think he has shown pretty much during his presidency that he is able to do that the o

currents in the race. barack obama lost the senior vote to john mccain in florida by eight points in 2008. so for the president to be doing well in the traditional republican voting block is a danger sign for romney. strategists for both parties in florida agree obama is ahead in the state and the battle over met care is helping make inroads with seniors. as nancy reported, the president is doing better with blue collar white voters in ohio and doing better on the economy of the economy. it's whaepg is mitt romney is having to play defense with his own voting group. the time he has to spend shoring them up is time he's not spending getting swing voters. >> pelley: john, polls that are taken about this point in september sometimes predict the winner and sometimes they don't. in 2008, we had obama over mccain at about this point, but in the year 2000, we had gore over bush about this point. how predict i.v. are these polls six weeks out. >> reporter: if we go all the way back to 1952, eisenhower's first election, the vast majority of the time the candidates who was ahead of the polls ended

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